Assumptions Lab · Methodology

How the calculation works

Show how strongly a long-horizon illustration depends on returns, fees, inflation, earnings growth and property-price change.

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Included

  • Separate starting values for an investment, a property and annual income
  • Future-pound and today-money values
  • A common real-value index for unlike starting amounts
  • The purchasing power of £100,000 cash without interest
  • A one-percentage-point sensitivity test for every entered rate

Outside this method

  • A forecast, probability or historical range
  • Investment contributions, mortgage debt, tax and spending
  • Asset-allocation, product or property recommendations
  • Cash interest and investment volatility
  • A combined net-worth or affordability result

Calculation

Core formulas

Investment after fees

Vₜ = V₀ × [(1 + return) × (1 − fee)]ᵗ

Return and the annual percentage fee are combined multiplicatively once in each modelled year.

Income or property value

Vₜ = V₀ × (1 + annual change)ᵗ

The entered growth rate stays constant throughout the selected horizon.

Today-money value

Real value = future value ÷ (1 + inflation)ᵗ

This converts a future-pound amount into estimated present purchasing power.

Common index

Indexₜ = 100 × real valueₜ ÷ starting value

Each line starts at 100 so its change in purchasing power can be compared without adding unlike amounts.

Timing convention

When cash flows occur

All annual assumptions compound once per modelled year. The sensitivity view recalculates the relevant outcome after moving one assumption down and up by one percentage point while holding every other entry constant.

Limitations

What the result cannot establish

  • Constant rates conceal volatility, sequence effects and changing economic conditions.
  • Annual income is a flow while property and investment values are assets; they are deliberately shown separately.
  • General inflation may not reflect a household’s own spending pattern.
  • A property-price assumption says nothing about saleability, costs, maintenance or local conditions.
  • The fee sensitivity is bounded at 0% when a one-point reduction would otherwise be negative.

Reference tests

Numerical checks

CaseInputsExpected result
Investment compounding£100,000; 5% return; 0% fee; 10 years£162,889 in future pounds
Cash purchasing power£100,000 cash; 2.5% inflation; 20 yearsApproximately £61,027 in today’s money
Flat real property value2% property growth; 2% inflationReal-value index remains at 100

Evidence

Sources