Highest modelled annual rate
4.50%Cash ISA, on the entered rates and tax assumptions. Premium Bonds use an expected value; this is not a recommendation or guaranteed ranking.Taxable savings tax£772£2,159 net gain over 2 years
ISA advantage vs taxable cash£602On the entered rates, before subscription-limit checks
Premium Bonds: no-prize chance0.0%£2,610 expected prizes
Prize simulator
Expected return is not a typical return
£30,000 across 24 eligible monthly draws. The expected value includes very rare large prizes, so the median can be much lower.
£1,67510th£2,300median£3,20090th
- Expected prizes
- £2,610
- Median simulated prizes
- £2,300
- Chance of no prize
- 0.0%
- Approx. £1m chance
- 1 in 95,274
10,000 deterministic simulations using the estimated September 2026 prize mix. Re-running identical inputs gives the same illustration.The selected gilt does not match the 2-year cash horizon.
It matures in about 1.45 years. The gilt row runs to that maturity; the other rows run for 2 years. Choose a closer maturity before comparing the net cash gains.
After-tax cash comparison
Each row is a standalone use of the money. “Modelled” does not mean the rate is fixed by the product.
| Option | Amount modelled | Time used | Tax | Net or expected gain | Annual rate | What can vary |
|---|
| Taxable savings | £30,000 | 2 yr | £772 | £2,159 | 3.54% | Rate, tax position, access terms |
|---|
| Cash ISA | £30,000 | 2 yr | £0 | £2,761 | 4.50% | Rate, access terms, subscription eligibility |
|---|
| Premium Bonds | £30,000 | 24 draws | £0 | £2,610 expected | 4.26% | Prizes, odds, prize-fund rate |
|---|
| 0⅛% Treasury Gilt 2028 | £30,000 | 1.45 yr | £0 | £1,783 | 4.07% | Quote, costs, accrued interest, tax, early-sale price |
|---|
Gilt return anatomy
£30,000 buys about £31,723 nominal at a dirty price of £94.530 per £100, after £12 dealing cost. The model adds £59 gross coupons, estimates £0 coupon tax and treats the move to £31,723 redemption value as CGT-exempt for a qualifying direct gilt held by a UK individual.
Assumptions used
- Taxable savings and ISA rates remain constant and compound annually for the entered whole-year horizon.
- The unused savings allowance is applied afresh in each modelled year; actual tax-year timing and other interest can change the result.
- Premium Bonds use fixed holdings, September 2026 odds and the estimated prize distribution. Prizes are not reinvested in the simulation.
- The prize-fund rate is an average across all eligible Bonds, not an interest rate paid to each holder.
- The direct-gilt calculation holds the security to maturity, treats coupons as savings income and a qualifying price gain as CGT-exempt. Coupon timing and the Accrued Income Scheme are simplified.
- FSCS limits, NS&I backing, access delays, fixed-term penalties, ISA subscription limits and provider solvency should be checked separately.
Match the product to the date the cash is needed. A long gilt is not a cash account, and a high expected Premium Bonds return can coexist with a much lower median outcome.